There is no shortage of “2026 predictions for aviation.” But rather than speculate, the facts already tell a clear story: airlines are financially resilient on paper, while day-to-day operations remain under sustained pressure. Aircraft and parts constraints persist, utilisation stays high, and recovery margins across the network remain thin.

In that environment, airline leaders, station managers, and ground handling partners will continue to win (or lose) the year in one place: the turnaround.

The financial headline is positive – margins not really

IATA’s outlook points to a robust topline in 2026:

• Global airline revenues projected at $1.053T

• Combined net profit projected around $41B

But the crucial detail is what sits behind those numbers:

• A expected net margin of ~3.9%

• Roughly $7.90 profit per passenger

In other words: the industry can look “healthy,” while still having very little tolerance for operational volatility.

Fleet constraints and supply chain friction keep the network “tight”

IATA’s supply chain analysis underscores what ops teams already feel daily: delayed deliveries and parts availability force airlines to keep aircraft and engines in service longer—and to plan around uncertainty.

The knock-on effects are practical and immediate:

• Higher maintenance load and more variability in aircraft availability

• Higher leasing and inventory buffers, because “just-in-time” doesn’t work when parts don’t arrive predictably

• Sustained high load factors, leaving less recovery space when a rotation slips

This is why 2026 will continue to feel “hot”: demand is there, but the system has limited slack.

What this means for outstations (and vendor governance)

When utilisation is high and margins are thin, the small things become big things:

• A single late start can cascade into missed CTOTs, gate conflicts, misconnections, and baggage disruptions

• A minor service shortfall becomes a network delay minute with real cost

• Planned changes (fleet swaps, tech windows, staffing tightness) become harder to absorb

And importantly: these pressures don’t sit with one party. They sit between parties—where handovers, definitions, and visibility often break down.

Collaboration is the only scalable buffer

Outstations are delivered by a multi-party team: airline ops, station staff, ground handling providers, airport stakeholders, and maintenance realities. In 2026, performance improvement will come less from “trying harder” and more from working from the same facts, in the same rhythm.

The goal is not to play airlines and handlers against each other. The goal should be to turn the turnaround into a repeatable, measurable product that both sides can improve together.

Five collaboration moves that scale across the network

1. Standardize the turnaround language

   • Agree milestone definitions (on-chocks/off-chocks, first/last bag, boarding complete, ready-to-push)

   • Define what counts as a blocker vs. a delay cause vs. an exception

2. Create a shared flight-level record

   • One timeline, timestamped, accessible to both airline and provider

   • Fewer “dueling spreadsheets,” faster alignment after irregularities

3. Shift SLA governance from monthly review to daily exception handling

   • Spot issues quickly, assign ownership, close the loop with corrective actions

   • Use monthly meetings to prioritize improvements—not reconstruct the past

4. Link operational evidence to financial settlement

   • Faster, fairer settlement reduces friction

   • Less time spent debating invoices means more time spent fixing recurring problems

5. Run a joint improvement backlog with measurable ROI

   • Track investments (equipment, staffing, training, process changes)

   • Measure impact in minutes saved, delays avoided, and incidents reduced

Where Cosmos helps

Cosmos is built for exactly this reality: outstations, third-party delivery, and the need for shared accountability. Cosmos helps airline teams and ground handling partners collaborate through:

• Consolidated flight-level service data across every outstation

• Real-time SLA monitoring and breach flagging

• Delay & baggage incident analytics to focus improvement work

• Automated post-flight settlement so operations and finance stay aligned

• Proactive alerts and dashboards that support joint execution

If 2026 is another year of tight capacity and thin margins, the best lever is the one you repeat thousands of times: the turnaround.